The last game of a great season is almost upon us. Tomorrow night at the GA Dome, the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech host the Tigers of Louisiana State (7:30, ESPN) for the 41st edition of the Peach/Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Tech will be shooting for its first 10-win season since the days of Joe Hamilton while the Bayou Bengals will be trying to salvage what has been an absymal season, going 7-5 and losing four of their last six only a year removed from winning the national championship. I'll do my best to provide a breakdown of tomorrow night's anticipated matchup. You can read the AJC's preview here, but I'll be going more in-depth than they did.When Tech has the ball...
GT Run Offense vs. LSU Run Defense
This matchup will quite possibly the most important in deciding the outcome of the game. LSU's defense comes in ranked 17th in the country against the run (allowing 105 ypg), while Tech is 3rd in the nation in rushing (282 ypg). Tech also features the ACC POTY in 1000-yard running back Jonathan Dwyer, who has had nine 100-yard games this season. The offense has seen its first and third best rushing outputs of the season in our last two games, reaching 472 yards against Miami and 409 against UGAy. Up to this point, success against the run has not translated to success against our offense. Just ask Willie Martinez.
However, LSU's defensive line is composed of well-seasoned veterans, including future NFL stars DE Tyson Jackson and DT Ricky Jean-Francois. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the D-line has largely underachieved all season, only generating 27 sacks and allowing 17 rushing TDs. If they are unable to consistently contain Dwyer's dive plays (or anything else up the middle), it will be a long night for Miles' Tigers.
Edge: Georgia Tech
GT Pass Offense vs. LSU Pass Defense
Probably the biggest question mark of all for this game -- will we even pass enough for this to be a factor? If/when we do pass, will our guys be wide open like they have been a lot this season (see: Roddy Jones TD catch vs. VPI and DeMaryius Thomas TD catch vs. Miss. State)? LSU's secondary hasn't exactly been a defensive stalwart this season, giving up 220 yards a game through the air while only intercepting seven passes (and Tech has only thrown seven picks). Pass rush has been an issue as well (27 sacks as mentioned above - well below the normal level of sacks for the Tigers) which may have resulted in the issues in the secondary. There have been numerous bad plays by the back four for the Tigers, including a blown assignment on the opening drive by Ole Miss and bad coverage on the GW TD pass by Arkansas (I believe both were the responsibility of LSU CB Chris Hawkins). Good news for the Tigers: Tech's high on the season in terms of passing was 230 yards (all from Jaybo to Be-Be) against Miss. State.
CPJ has also discussed instituting some run-and-shoot plays for the bowl game to expand LSU's defense a bit. But will this really be necessary? It could be a coaching trick used by CPJ to give the LSU staff something else to worry about. It would be nice to see some of this though if the ground game stalls early (then again, we were down by 16 to UGAy at half and made the right adjustments at halftime to come out really strong in the 3rd and 4th quarters), but it may not be so effective (Tech has only passed 140 times this season - good for 117th in the nation - which is 102 attempts behind the next closest team, Slow-hio State). You can learn more on the run-and-shoot offense here.
I think LSU wins the matchup, but mostly because Tech just won't be passing the ball (only 11.7 attempts per game so far).
Edge: LSU
When LSU has the ball...
LSU Run Offense vs. GT Run Defense
LSU features one of the nation's most underrated running games, in which RBs Charles Scott (1109 yards, 15 TDs) and Keiland Williams (375 yards, 1 TD) get the bulk of the carries. Though their production has tailed off in the second half of the season (as has their whole team), they still present a problem to the Tech defense. Scott and Williams will be running behind one of the best O-lines in the country, featuring Ciron Black, Brett Helms, and big-man Herman Johnson. Johnson vs. Johnson should be one of the best "game-within-the-game"s of the CFA Bowl.
Tech will counter with the nation's 51st best rush defense (117 ypg), featuring a seasoned D-line with the likes of seniors Vance Walker, Darryl Richard (from Destrehan, LA), and Michael "the Freak" Johnson -- a D-line that has generated lots of pressure (32 sacks) and has a safety and pick-six to its credit. Don't forget about sophmore DE Derrick Morgan, who has taken advantage of double teams on his fellow linemen to lead the team in sacks this year. Tech has only allowed one 100-yard rusher all season in UVA tailback Cedric Peerman, who forced a lot of missed tackles and threw a lot of stiff arms against out D. As a group, Tech has only allowed nine rushing TDs all year, and no more than two to any back.
Edge: tie
LSU Pass Offense vs. GT Pass Defense
Les Miles has to be asking..."Do we have to have a QB for this game?" The passing game for LSU is shaky at best, and a liability at worst. Their probable starter, Jordan Jefferson, is a true freshman who has only made one start (a loss to Arkansas) and his only other major PT was in the second half against Ole Miss (another LSU loss). The likely backup, Jarrett Lee, has been a defense's best friend all year, throwing 16 picks including eight returned to the house (that leads the nation). Meanwhile, Tech's secondary has been it's weakest point this season. That being said, they have still amassed 18 picks, including seven by sophmore safety Morgan Burnett (tied for the national lead). The bad news for Tech is that LSU will bring out a solid WR corp, which will feature the SEC leader in receptions (61) in Brandon LaFell. Terrence Tolliver, Chris Mitchell, and Trindon Holliday will also be forces to be reckoned with, if Jefferson/Lee (gotta love that name duo) can get them the ball.
Edge: tie
Special Teams
The biggest gap in a unit-by-unit analysis is special teams. LSU will trot out the all-time SEC leading scorer in K Colt David AND super-fast returner Trindon Holliday (this guy runs a 10.02 100-meter dash, folks). Holliday is a threat to break a TD everytime he touches the ball. Watch out, Tech fans, if our punters outkick our coverage.
On the flip side, our special teams have been anything but special. We haven't been able to muster much in the return game, and kickoffs and FGs have been OK (though I give Scott Blair a ton of credit for improving all season and most importantly, for saving the game on more than one occasion by making a tackle on a kickoff. For those of you who are wondering, Blair has nine tackles on the season).
Edge: LSU
Coaching
Two words: Paul Johnson.
Edge: Georgia Tech
Intangibles
Has LSU written this season off? They won it all last year, then followed it up with a Gailey-like 7-5, while becoming the only defending NC ever to have a losing conference record the following season (3-5 in the SEC). They'll have to be super-sharp anyway against the UCOBS, and mental lapses certainly won't help. Tech however is coming in hot and really confident. Not to mention, this will be a home game for the Jackets - though the LSU fans will be there, and will be loud.
Edge: Georgia Tech
More Numbers
Tech is 0-3 all-time in the Peach/CFA Bowl while LSU is 4-0. Tech leads the all-time series with LSU, 12-6.
Tech will win if...
...we win or tie the turnover battle or rush for over 300 yards.
LSU will win if...
...they do four of the following things:
- Win the turnover battle
- Pass for over 200 yards
- Charles Scott/Keiland Williams have 150+ yards combined
- Trindon Holliday has a 30+ yard punt or kickoff return
- Hold Tech to <250>
- Les Miles tells the media that he is "damn proud of his football team" before the game
Prediction
LSU's undisciplined defense has been a problem all year, and no amount of preparation will overcome that attitude. Tech will be ready and maybe most importantly, healthy. Tech rolls in front of the home crowd, 38-21 on our way to the first 10-win season since 1998.
Geaux Jackets!
